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Codename Entertainment Forums > Legacy Games > Mystic Guardians > General Discussion > Accuracy is bug?

Accuracy is bug?
339 Posts	Link to post - Posted February 12th 2012 at 7:52 AM Kite_sama it happened the more strange thing today. im using a lot "rekless strike" the new move of fengal, it comes a kowa and reduced my accuracy for 12 points, after this my fengal (who already has have his accuracy lowered to this kind) missed 5 consecutive "rekless strikes" i know i can miss hits and all, but its really strange 5 consecutive hits and more in rekless strike. so please could you check if the accuracy is wrong or something? thank you.
407 Posts	Link to post - Posted February 12th 2012 at 8:18 AM Last Edited February 12th 2012 at 8:19 AM Benedikt Albert While it's not very likely, these kind of things happen more often, than people think they would. I don't know, what the base chance of Reckless Strike is, but if it's 80% and you have it reduced by another 12%, the chance to miss 5 times in a row is 0.32^5 = 0.33% (which means that this will happen every 333rd time you do it on average). Sure, it's not likely... but if I remember correctly, we were already told that everything is working correctly there.
339 Posts	Link to post - Posted February 12th 2012 at 10:26 AM Kite_sama rekless strike is 99% chance to hit, so is almost impossible to miss 5 consecutive times.
407 Posts	Link to post - Posted February 12th 2012 at 11:05 AM Benedikt Albert That would change the above calculation to 0.13^5 = 0.0037% (a chance of 1:26933). Could still be just bad luck.
11 Posts	Link to post - Posted February 12th 2012 at 11:45 AM Julie Fleming I think the accuracy is off too. My 99% attacks miss too often without an accuracy decrease.
886 Posts	Link to post - Posted February 12th 2012 at 6:41 PM David Whittaker (CNE Dev) I checked the accuracy calculations the last time someone asked about this. They are correct. Think about it like this - if something has a 1 in 20,000 chance of happening, and 20,000 people are playing the game, then it is expected it would happen to 1 person. If all of those people do 100 actions all of a sudden it is 1 in 200 and it would be expected that it happen to 200 of the 20,000 players. If all of those people are doing 100 actions everyday, then it would be expected that everyday 200 people would miss 5 times in a row on a 87% chance ability.
339 Posts	Link to post - Posted February 12th 2012 at 10:19 PM Kite_sama thanks david for the answer, i was curious because not all days you fail 5 consecutives rekless strikes.
886 Posts	Link to post - Posted February 12th 2012 at 10:26 PM David Whittaker (CNE Dev) Hi Carlos, That was just an example to show that when you have a large enough sample size things that by themselves seem unlikely occur on a regular and expected basis.
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