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Mission success rates, tragedy and you
11 Posts	Link to post - Posted April 20th 2017 at 5:50 AM ryanmcfitz If I send a pair of crusaders off on a mission with only a 83% chance of success, they succeed a statistically probable number of times. Ever since crafting has been introduced, I'm often sending crusaders off on a crafting-related mission to recover resources, pick up recipes, etc. and they might have a 97% chance of success. FAIL. More often than not, they fail, they're injured and I grit my teeth and wait for that epic recipe quest to come up again a few days later. Is this happening to anyone else? Because this kind of "random" is really beginning to irk my chickens.
301 Posts	Link to post - Posted April 20th 2017 at 5:50 AM Vingummi You fail all 97% missions and all others succeed them. Someone has to fail :)
859 Posts	Link to post - Posted April 20th 2017 at 6:04 AM Andreas I have failed 99% probabilities, I have succeeded probabilities beneath 60%. Please don't harm any flying folk, there is nothing wrong going on. As with every little piece which relies on a random number or RNG, the result is calculated every time again. There is no connection which is giving you better or worse chances to succeed at 97% if you have failed it three times or more before. The same is true for the statement 'more often than not'. I am not an expert in statistics, but to come to a somewhat reliable conclusion you need to run hundreds of the same missions with the same setup. Plus, on a more human nature: While I believe you saying you fail more often than not, people tend to remember the failed occasions more or better than the succeeded ones.
11 Posts	Link to post - Posted April 20th 2017 at 6:20 AM Last Edited April 20th 2017 at 6:21 AM ryanmcfitz @Vingummi -- I like to think the upside is that I'm performing a valuable service for the rest of you by taking one for the team. @Andreas -- Yeah, I understand what you're saying and I'm also not casting aspersions on the RNG. I know random is random. I am, however, the only guy I know to have rolled a natural 1 on a d20 five times in a row. This was done in a room full of Masters and Ph.D students of mathematics and after that evening, they looked at me with almost supernatural dread. I spent a boring afternoon at a coffee shop waiting for a bus with a friend and we flipped a coin 800 times. He called "heads" every time and won 600 of the tosses. Unfortunately, no, I'm failing a little less than half of my crafting quests, despite the chance of success being 90% or higher. I'm not blaming the RNG -- I'm looking for company in my misery.
859 Posts	Link to post - Posted April 20th 2017 at 6:27 AM Andreas misery? Rolling a D20 with such perfection is quite magnificent! If you want misery, I'ld suggest to extend the question to all those who have received six or seven Silver Event Chests in a row. I'm joining you in that one. Or those who couldn't get geat on their last event crusaders.
11 Posts	Link to post - Posted April 20th 2017 at 7:10 AM ryanmcfitz Yep, I blew through any number of Time Turners and Quantum Leaps last year to hit the Free Play event to get the one missing piece of gear for Brogon. Never got it.
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