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Codename Entertainment
Questionable success rates

781 Posts
Link to post - Posted January 12th 2017 at 11:48 AM
Last Edited January 12th 2017 at 11:49 AM
Animenut
Is there a hidden......something....in the mission success rates? I normally get success rate up to 100%, but on those missions that make 100% more difficult to achieve, in the last few weeks, I've failed a 90%, 93%, 88%, 95%, and a 92% success rate. At this point, I'm actually SCARED to do any mission less than 100%. Yeah yeah, I know, "Anything less than 100% means there is a chance to fail, so stop complaining." My issue isn't that I'm failing. My issue is the disturbing RATE that I fail despite the greatly favorable chances. It makes me suspicious when I can routinely fail 90%+ missions. That is a 1-in-10 chance that I'm consistently hitting somehow. It seems like anything below 80% is a guaranteed failure. That alone is aggravating, but made even more-so by the fact that it really only applies to important missions like crusader-unlocking and huge lumps of idols. If this fail-at-high-success-rate-constantly issue was happening to small-rewards-short-duration missions then it wouldn't be nearly as much of an issue, but when it is affecting legitimately important missions that take a whole day or days to finish? Worth a forum rant.

692 Posts
Link to post - Posted January 12th 2017 at 3:05 PM
Teschio
I personally had the same feeling, so I did some testing. I tried a bunch of gold (i.e. worthless) missions with crusaders that purposefully did NOT match the tags, so at 50% success rate (for common missions). Out of 30 missions I tried this way, 16 were a success, 14 a failure. A statistical tie. Yes, it really is 50%, you place more emphasis on the ones you fail because of pattern recognition and personal bias (or simply bad luck).

781 Posts
Link to post - Posted January 12th 2017 at 3:55 PM
Animenut
I honestly doubted the game had anything like that since there is no real point to making a system purposely imbalanced and falsely represented. Mostly an exasperated post. However, I can ASSURE you it isn't recognization bias. That is the first thing I considered, and it isn't the case. I've been noticing the pattern for a while, so I started paying more specific attention to the results of non-100% missions in roughly the last month or so (given the limited number that happen within such a span), and I did not mark down exact numbers, but I definitely failed an overwhelming majority of high-success missions over the scant few I succeeded in. Among people who know me personally, I'm notoriously unlucky, but I don't like jumping to that assumption as a first resort. In this case, seems like it is just my usual unholy luck.

......Oh joy.....

87 Posts
Link to post - Posted January 12th 2017 at 5:36 PM
Erich
I'm going to be honest, I've noticed it too. I failed at 93% for a 3 day recruit mission, and now I'm scared to do a 90% 2 day gear mission. Also, I failed a short gold mission that I accidentally got to 83% instead of 100%. I honestly think it's bad luck, though I agree it's worthy of a rant (damn you RNG!!!)

However, what I think we don't take into account is how many active players are succeeding in those missions that don't mention it in chat or the forums. So yeah, I failed at 93%, but I'm sure there are a ton of folks that succeeded at that same rate.

781 Posts
Link to post - Posted January 12th 2017 at 6:21 PM
Animenut
Are En Jesus, thou art a cruel mister.

5565 Posts
Link to post - Posted January 12th 2017 at 8:51 PM
Raymond
i intentionally do missions with no crusaders for it, routinely 50% ones and win perhaps 50% of the time.
just now i succeeded in a 30% 1 hour pheromone buff (training montage) with 3 people who were no good for it.
I do not ever get recruit missions as I have everyone, but all the gear missions I get and can never seem to get much more then 70-90% chance on have hardly ever failed.

781 Posts
Link to post - Posted January 12th 2017 at 10:10 PM
Animenut
Raymond, good to know you have unparalleled god-like luck. Might want to hit some casinos if you're really that impossibly adverse to failure of any type.

87 Posts
Link to post - Posted January 13th 2017 at 7:22 AM
Erich
@Raymond: Why do you use the "wrong" crusaders for missions? Just for the giggleshits? Or are you trying to figure out how the odds truly work?

I only ask because I really like my win/loss ratio on my stats page (3.17k won, 5 lost), so I would never intentionally try to put crusaders that don't work into certain missions.

cheers 8^)

5565 Posts
Link to post - Posted January 13th 2017 at 7:53 AM
Raymond
i an essentially a tester.
my stats which do not matter, LOL, are 2.6k missions, 46 failed, 9 injuries, 6.56k crusaders sent on missions.
i do use correct crusaders for missions that do matter like gear or high idols, but gold, ep, speed and low idols i 'waste' to get info. success/fail rate for me is statistically within normal as far as one can tell on a really small sample.

781 Posts
Link to post - Posted January 13th 2017 at 3:13 PM
Last Edited January 13th 2017 at 3:18 PM
Animenut
Since we're posting stats, I'll post my own. Finished 4.78k, failed 146. Just because I'm a nerd, I feel like calculating the ratios mentioned.

Erich: 3.17k missions, 5 failed = 1-in-63400 is a loss

Raymond: 2.6k missions, 46 failed = 1-in-5652 is a loss

Me: 4.78 missions, 146 failed = 1-in-3274 is a loss

Assuming everyone gave the correct numbers, I'm objectively the least lucky by a country mile. And considering Raymond claims to intentionally hinder his success rates, while I do not, that is really saying something.
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